As March Madness approaches, I thought I’d take a break from my bracket and take a look into a little baseball, specifically the New York Mets. 2009 was by all accounts a terrible year for the Mets. Just about everything that could’ve gone wrong went wrong. About half the starters got hurt, and then some of their back ups were injured as well. The new stadium opened and played enormous. The lack of home runs and charm caused a lot of the fan base to do a lot of complaining. An assistant GM got fired for a reported story that he took his shirt off and challenged some minor leaguers to a fight. All this culminated with Omar Minaya blaming a beat reported for breaking the story to get the assistant GM fired cause the reporter was angling for that job. Combine that with a 130 million dollar payroll and almost 100 losses and you can see why many Mets fans are not exactly pleased with the current administration. Most people believe that is the Mets start slow, Minaya as well as manager Jerry Manuel will be fired by July. Today, however I bring I different point of view. Seeing as how it is Spring, a time to be optimistic, I can see the makings of something potentially special.
For years now, Mets fans have been tortured. They play in the biggest media market in the US (if not world) and are always the younger brother of the mighty Yankees. The constant insecurity of ownership has led GM’s of the past to make panic trades that have crippled the farm system. They’ve always spent a ton on 30 something free agents and often had no depth when someone gets hurt. After last year, the sentiment was the same. The Mets have no depth and no plan and any sort of injury causes a 100 loss season…FIYA MINAYA. The truth however is that the injuries the Mets had last year would not have been overcome by any team. Losing Beltran, Reyes, Santana, Wright (for a couple weeks), Perez, Maine, and Delgado is too much for any team. But the silver lining is a lot of young players played last year and they might have more depth than before. Furthermore, the vast majority of the team is now under 30 and some legitimate stars are developing in the lower ranks. For the 1st time in a couple years the Mets appear to have a plan for more than this year and actually have a chance at sustained success. let’s take a look.
Pitching Staff:
The staff led by Johan Santana COULD be very good. After Santana you have Oliver Perez (28), John Maine (28), Mike Pelfrey (26) and whoever wins the 5th spot. The early favorite appears to be 27 year old Fernando Nieve, or 23 year old Jonathon Niese. Obviously there are a lot of question marks but Maine and Perez have talent and have won 15 games in a major league season. Pelfrey continues to improve and routinely touches the mid 90’s with a tough sinker. That top 4 COULD be very good and be that way for a while. Santana is 32 but he is in awesome shape and is one of the hardest workers in the game so he should be good for a few more years. The other guys are all under 30 and would seem to be entering their prime. All of those guys were acquired by Minaya without giving up all that much. Sure they could’ve used some of the prospects in the Santana trade last year but they kept Niese who has looked great in the spring and played well in the majors as well. Also, none of them have exactly torn it up for the twins yet. The wild card of the staff is Jenry Meijia. The 20 year old with unreal stuff who has impressed everyone in camp. There seems to be no chance he makes the rotation this year, but he at least has ace potential and in a year or 2 could be a major factor. As a result, they have a young staff that has the potential to be very good.
Outfield
Obviously, Jason Bay is over 30 so he doesn’t exactly fit the mold, but he is only 31 and signed for 4 years. So left field SHOULD be occupied by a productive player for the next few years. In left I think Omar made a very underrated move this past summer when he acquired Jeff Francuer. He’s 26 and has a lot of talent. He is certainly flawed but in a line up with Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Bay, a low OBP power bat can still be an asset. He also plays great defense. In center they have an aging Beltran. He got off to a good start last year before getting injured and he is of course injured again to start this year. He is 32 so this is the time when he might start to decline severely. If healthy, he is the best center fielder in the league but he should not be considered a major part of the Mets’ future. If they can get 2 more decent years out of him, they will be set cause on the horizon, Omar still has Fernado Martinez up his sleeve. The poster child for over-hyped Mets prospect is still around in the Mets’ system. What makes him different is he is only 21 and when healthy he has killed the ball. He is tearing it up in spring training and is the heir apparent to Beltran. NO ONE disputes F-Mart’s talent level, but he can’t seem to stay healthy. It reminds me of Jose Reyes. He was hurt a lot early and finally was able as he got older to take better care of him self and stay healthy. I predict the same for Martinez. There are already reports that he is in better shape and starting to figure out that he needs to do to stay healthy and in shape. If Beltran can have a couple of decent years, martinez could take over and the team would be fine. So in short, The outfield appears to be good defensively and offensively for the next couple of years with young, productive players.
are dark skies forming over Citi field? Maybe not
Infield
Wright and Reyes are 26 and 27 respectively, so they aren’t going anywhere. Obviuosly Reyes needs to be healthy (noticing a theme here) but just about any team in the league would love to have those 2 on the left side of their infield. It gets tricky on the right side though. Luis Castillo is by all accounts a bad signing for the Mets. He is not a good defender and just an average offensive player. Also first base is a bit of a question mark. Currently, Daniel Murphy is manning that post and most are lukewarm on him. He has proven he can hit, but not with the power you want for a first baseman. It’s interesting cause he has proven he cannot play the outfield and does not appear to be an ideal fit at first. In the minors, he played third which is not possible for the Mets so he seems to be a man without a position on this team…unless he can play second. He has tried in the offseason with mixed results but he has good hands in the field and is a very hard worker so it could work. He might have to cause coming up behind him fast is big Ike Davis, the 22 year old first baseman who is killing the ball in spring training. He will most likely be in the majors for a little this year and to stay next year. So, if Murphy can learn second, they could have a really good, young infield for a long time. The biggest hole is catcher. Omar seems to have no clue about how to develop a catcher and I am unable to defend any moves he’s made at that position. There is Josh Thole in AAA who can hit for average and takes walks, but he couldn’t hit it out of a little league park. A lot depends on how second base sorts it self out and the a trade of Murphy is possible (murphy, meijia, f-mart and meijia for Mauer? I hope not) with Reese Havens coming up through the system as well.
Wrap Up
So if you look at it, if things go right, the Mets might be built for a big run the next couple of years. They will have a starting staff with a bonafide ace and 4 other young, promising players behind him. An outfield with really good offensive and defensive players (except Bay), and the potential for a young and very productive infield with lots of homegrown talent. Of course, a lot of things have to go right for a pennant to come to Queens, but if you step back and take a look, you can see the plan that Omar Minaya has and can’t deny that there is at least a chance that it works out.
