Sports Talk, Rumors and Other Contrarian Insights

Five innings into his professional career, the war drum is banging for Stephen Strasburg to be on the opening day big league roster for the Washington Nationals.

That would be a terrible mistake on many levels.

First, the Washington Nationals are going to STINK this year.  I am a Nats fan, but I am realistic.  Even if we improve by 10 wins, we are still in the 90 loss territory.

The Washington Nationals will not magically be catapulted into playoff contention if they manage to put Strasburg in the rotation starting in April.  At best, Strasburg might be able to help them cut the amount of losses to 90 if he were in the opening day rotation.

Second, by calling up Strasburg now, you are going to put an unreasonable amount of expectation and hype on the player starting opening day.  The hype isn’t going to dissapear if you send him to the minors, but at least down there he doesn’t come out of the season’s gates with the ’savior’ label on his back.

Letting him get some professional batters under his belt in the minors will help Strasburg acclamate himself better to the big leagues.  Minor league hitters at double A and beyond are going to be better and more difficult competition on a consistent basis than anything that Strasburg has seen yet, and he needs that.

Third, leaving him in the minor’s is going to delay his ability to file for arbitration.  The clock on his service time will begin ticking the second he is in the major leagues.

Although Strasburg is on the 40-man roster already, that only affects the amount of options that the player has over the course of his first contract.  Essentially, it forces the major league team to get the players in the big leagues quicker.  What it does not do is affect arbitration eligible status.

By waiting until mid-June, the Nationals can ensure that Strasburg will not get super two status, and will not be able to file arbitration until after his 4th year, instead of his third.

Lastly, Jim Riggleman has had a young pitching phenom before in Kerry Wood.  He had Kerry Wood up early in the season and rode him into the ground by pitching him 166.2 innings.  The major work load led to arm surgery for Wood, which he never quite returned to his previous form.

Striking out major league hitters is a LOT of work.  Not all innings are made the same, so it isn’t a fair barometer to just say he pitched 150 innings, because if one pitcher is throwing 25 pitches an inning and  another is throwing 14, the 14 pitches per inning pitcher is throwing less.

My point is that Strasburg should be monitored closely, and hopefully will only throw about 125 big league innings this year, in preparation to anchor next year’s staff with John Lannan.

The Nats have already felt the effects of an arm injury to a prized prospect, Jordan Zimmermann.  Every effort has to be made to prevent that from happening again.

Next years opening day roatation could be:

1) John Lannan

2) Stephen Strasburg

3) Jason Marquis

4) Jordan Zimmermann

5) Chien Ming Wang–if he returns to form…if not, Ross Detweiler/Garrett Mock/Free Agent

The future is hopeful.  Hopefully, the Nats don’t mess it up.

I can’t find the video to embed, but if you go to the Steinbog on Washingtonpost.com, and scroll to the bottom of the article, there is a video there. Check it out here.

Here is a picture, but not the video.

So, with all the hype behind Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg, it’s easy to forget that there are more than two intriguing prospects in baseball this year. These are the kind of guys that if you identify early, might make or break a fantasy baseball season (think if you held Tim Lincecum in 2007, he would have given you 150+ strikeouts in 4 months).

1) Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles

Ok, this is a name that many are familiar with in the the Baltimore/DC area, but might not be as familiar with outside this area.

Matusz made his big league debut last year, starting 8 games and throwing 44.2 innings. He gave up 52 hits and 14 walks in those big league innings, but also recorded 38 strikeouts.

Matusz is a control and command freak (control is the ability of a pitcher to ‘control’ his fastball, i.e. not be wild, where command is the ability to locate one’s pitches). Matusz throws in the 92-94 range, but his devastation comes with an unbelievable ability to change speeds. He probably has one of the best change-ups already in the major leagues.

Matusz dominated the minor leagues last year, making Carolina League batters looks silly at times. He had a rough debut in the major leagues, but settled down after a few starts, and ended his season with a seven inning, four hit, two walk win against the New York Yankees. Matusz finished the year 5-2.

Matusz should be on your radar for fantasy drafts. Look for him in rounds 5-7. You might get laughed at, but he had 5 wins in two months, and the Orioles are improved. I think 15 wins is reasonable, with low WHIP and decent strikeout numbers. I also believe that Strasburg will get drafted higher than him in most instances, but Matusz will be the better fantasy pick and higher impact pitcher THIS season.

2) Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Niemann is a big, tall (6′9″), right handed pitcher. He has the ability to hit the mid-ninties consistently on the radar gun.

Last year, Niemann spent the entire season with the big league team and did not disappoint. He finished with 13 wins, an era under 4, and 125 strikeouts in 180.2 innings. He also is a ground ball pitcher and will not give up many era-killing homeruns.

Niemann will benefit from a Rays team that will be improved this year with the addition of many top prospects and some decent free agent acquisitions. Last year was a transition year for the Rays, and the team will likely take a step forward, allowing Niemann to pitch with less pressure.

The AL east is a bear, so any pitcher that is in the division will likely have slightly worse statistics than their counterparts in other divisions, but Niemann is ready to take the number two spot in the rotation in Tampa behind James Shields.

I would look for him in Round 9-10. I think he could win 15 games and post good strikeout numbers.

3) Neftali Feliz, SP/RP, Texas Rangers

Nasty.

That is the best word to describe the way that Neftali Feliz pitches.

Last year, Feliz threw 31 innings and struck out 39, while only walking 8. Combine that with only 2 homeruns, and we have the makings of a dominant closer for years to come. The Rangers only gave him two save opportunities during the 2009 season, and still have not decided exactly where to use him, but either way, this guy is worth picking up.

The Rangers have Chris Ray as a possible closing candidate, and could use the rotation help, but the temptation of such a dominant closer might be too much for the Rangers to pass up. Either way, there will be low WHIP, high strikeout numbers and wins or saves.

I would take this guy between 8-10 to secure him, he will be a steal if you can get him later.

4) Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians

Cleveland has decided to go into full-on rebuilding mode. They hired a throw-away manager in Manny Acta and traded away any veteran of substance, other than Grady Sizemore.

Last year, Victor Martinez got sent to the Red Sox at the deadline because the Indians are ready to call up his in-house replacement, Carlos Santana.

Santana is a switch-hitting, high average and on-base percentage, power hitting machine. He was his minor league MVP two years in a row.

Even though the Indians got Lou Marson in the deal for Cliff Lee, Santana is the future at catcher for the Indians.

He might not start the year in the big leagues, but look for him sometime after June. If you can’t pick him up as a free agent, then maybe stash him as your last pick, unless he breaks camp with the team, then get him because production at catcher is so scarce.

5) Ike Davis, OF/1B, New York Mets

I had Vernon Davis-like hate on Ike Davis when he first came into the big leagues, but he has slowly proved me wrong.

The versatile, power-hitter should see time in New York this season, and deservedly so, as Davis is raking this spring training. It shouldn’t be surprising as Davis hit 13 homeruns and 14 doubles in AA ball last year.

Davis might not get the opportunity to break camp with the big league club, but he is the kind of player you might take with your last pick and stash on your bench for a bit, as he should be up this year.

If Davis does start the year in New York, look for him in later rounds, as he could fit right in the hole at first base for the New York Mets.

6) Fernando Martinez, CF, New York Mets

F-Mart has been on the top prospect radar for quite a few years, but this spring it looks like he is realizing his potential. With 3 homeruns in spring training already, Martinez might be playing his way into the Mets outfield rotation.

Martinez has the ability to hit for power and average, as well as, the ability to swipe bases with the best of them.

He is also great with the glove, but until fantasy starts counting UZR ratings, then that won’t be much worth to most owners.

The point: Fernando Martinez appears legitimate. No Vernon Davis here.

7) Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Wade Davis has been mentioned for years as a top prospect in the Rays system, but due to the log jam of starters the Rays had entering 2008, got an extended stay in the minor leagues. Last year, the Rays began to filter out the rotation that led them to the 2008 World Series and enter in the young guns.

First Price, then Niemann, and now Davis.

Davis might end up being the best of the bunch. Last year, in 36.1 innings, Davis logged 36 strike outs, a 1.27 WHIP and only 2 homeruns. Combine that with an opponent batting average of only .243 (as flawed a stat as that is) and you have the makings of an ace.

Davis will be part of a young, albeit it experienced rotation, this season. Being the least experienced of the group, he might have some bumps in the road, but he also might have to deal with the least amount of expectations, as well.

I don’t know how high to say draft him–probably at the very end of a draft–but keep an eye on him.

8. Julio Borbon, OF, Texas Rangers

This 24 year-old speedster made his debut with the Rangers last year and is here to stay.

Borbon stole 19 bases in only 157 plate appearances, while only getting caught 4 times. Combine that with a nice .376 OBP and 30 runs scored, Borbon will become the full-time center fielder for the Rangers this year.

I don’t think stolen bases, for fantasy purposes, should be overvalued, especially due to the scarcity of homeruns, but finding outfielders who hit for average is difficult too, and if this .312 is any sign of what to come, then Borbon is a stud.

He will be there opening day, and behind Matusz, this is my second-favorite player on this list for high draft position. Luckily, most of your friends don’t have a blog run by cool guys to tell you about him

9) Brett Wallace, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

This guy has been dealt twice in a year, so there is always concern with that. First the Cardinals dealt him to Oakland, then Oakland to Toronto for Michael Taylor. I don’t think that is an indictment on Anderson’s play, but rather Oakland’s new emphasis on defensive metrics over on-base percentage (which Taylor is a stud in the making).

Wallace, though, for fantasy purposes, is a star in the making. The guy can flat out hit. He hits for power as evidenced by his 20 homeruns and 26 doubles last year between AA and AAA ball.

Wallace will also benefit from being on a terrible Toronto Blue Jays team that will allow him to just swing for the fences. This guy could hit 30 homeruns this year and might have multi-positional availability.

10) Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland Athletics

Lost in the Brett Anderson and Andrew Bailey success last year was the disappointment of Trevor Cahill.

Cahill was ranked higher than Brett Anderson by many publications going into the year, but had trouble last year with his command and lowered velocity.

I think he will bounce back this year.

I don’t have anything to back this up, I just believe he was a young pitcher in a stressful situation and he didn’t handle it the best, but he also didn’t handle it the worst, either.

He threw 178.2 innings as a rooking and managed to have a reasonable WHIP of 1.44. His homerun and walk numbers were a little high, but I believe with experience that will go down this year. A guy doesn’t do everything great thru the minors and then forgets how to pitch in the majors. He just might not have been ready, but he will be this year.

Add in the fact that you have Brett Anderson, Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer with him in the rotation and a lockdown closer in Andrew Bailey, and Cahill should blossom this year. Remember, Mark Mulder was roughed up his first year in the bigs and eventually righted himself.

Buy extremely low or as a free agent and it could be a huge bargain.

Others to watch:

Logan Morrison, 1B Florida Marlins

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins

Austin Jackson, CF, Detroit Tigers

Jordan Schafer, CF, Atlanta Braves

Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

This past offseason, the San Francisco Giants inked Tim Lincecum to a two-year $21 million deal. The deal avoided arbitration between the sides for the next two seasons, and will not bring up the issue of contract for Lincecum until the 2012 offseason. (Read the article here.)

Many watched this deal with much anticpation because it was unprecedented. There has never been a player who is first-time arbitration eligible and is a two-time Cy Young award winner. (Arbitration eligible players in baseball are players that have served three years with their team on the 40-man roster, or in some cases there are super-two’s, at that point the player can submit for an increase in salary over the league minimum $525,000).

The deal has been lauded for Lincecum as smart because it will guarantee another huge payday in his last two years of service time, and then a major contract in free agency.

This deal might also be smart for the Giants, too.

Players similiar to TIm Lincecum, in that they have a similiar body type, have shown a track record over the years of falling off after 1000 innings pitched. That fall-off is also accompanied by the player entering their last year of arbitration and free agency a year later.

When these players hit free agency they tend to receive huge salaries based on past performance, but what the numbers show is that the huge salary does not end up getting the huge performance after 1000 inning’s pitched.

Let’s look at two players who are simliar to Lincecum in many ways, Tim Hudson and Roy Oswalt. All these players have similiar body frames: Hudson- 6′1 170 lbs., Oswalt 6′ 0″ 190., Lincecum 5′11″ 172 lbs.

I will use strikouts as a barometer of performance, as it is one of two stats that the pitcher has nearly complete control, the other being walks.  Homeruns are subject to park effects, which is why I will not include that stat.

Tim Hudson came into the league in 1999. In his first three years, Hudson drew many comparisons to a young Pedro Martinez due to his size and delivery.

Hudson was incredibly effective in his first three years in the league, as the numbers show below:

1999-  IP: 136.1       SO: 132

2000- IP: 202.1      SO: 169

2001-  IP: 235.0     SO: 181

Take into account that Hudson was making the league minimum over those three years and you have a relative bargain. In the next three years Hudson would continue to be effective, while logging career highs in innings:

2002- IP: 238.1         SO: 152 Sal: $2.25 mil

2003- IP: 240.0        SO: 162 Sal: $2.25 mil

2004- IP: 188.2         SO: 103 Sal: $2.70 mil

After the 2004 season, in which Hudson achieved the 1000 innings plateau, Hudson was dealt to the Atlanta Braves. The thinking was largely that the Oakland Athletics could not afford to keep him, which might be partly true, but I also believe that the A’s saw what was about to come. The next three years in Atlanta Hudson threw these numbers:

2005- IP: 192.0     SO: 115 Sal: $5 mil

2006- IP: 218.1     SO: 142 Sal: $ 6.75 mil

2007- IP:224.1      SO: 131 Sal: $ 6.75 mil

As one can see, Hudson strike out numbers begin to take a dive after the 1000 innings plateau, while his salary increases by more than double. Also, his innings pitched totals go down from the previous three year stanza. So, you get decreased production for more than twice as much money? Maybe the A’s knew what they were doing after all. Take into account that Hudson’s numbers have seriously declined yet again (he only pitced 30 innings last year at a price tag of $15.5 mil) and one can see why taking pitchers with slight-of-frame builds might not be the safest investment.

For another example, consider Oswalt. In his first three years Oswalt carried very nice numbers:

2001   SO 144       IP 141.2      Sal: league min.

2002   SO 208      IP 233.0     Sal: league min.

2003   SO 108      IP 127.1       Sal: league min.

In his next three years (the arbitration years) Oswalt continued to pitch very well:

2004 SO: 206    IP 237    Sal: $ 3.25 mil

2005    SO: 184     IP 241.2    Sal: $ 5.9 mil

2006    SO: 166     IP 166       Sal: $11 mil

After his arbitration year (and 1000 inning’s pitch plateau in year 6), Oswalt’s production as a strike out pitcher takes a dive, yet his salary increases considerably:

2007    SO: 154     IP 212.0     Sal: $13 mil

2008    SO: 165     IP 208.2   Sal: $13 mil

2009    SO: 138     IP 181.1      Sal: $14 mil

My point is this, as a strike-out pitcher who is “small” reaches 1000 innings pitched, which usually coincides with that players 6th year of service and free agency, teams tend to overpay for the player based on what he has done previously.

What usually ends up happening is that player see’s his strike out numbers drop in the 7th, 8th and 9th year of his career, while the injuries to the player increase, causing a decrease in the number of innings pitched. All of this coincides with a considerable jump in salary over what the player was making before.

This is why teams such as the Rays and the Athletics can make moves with pitchers like these and stay competitive. The general pubic decries that this is the big bank teams eating the little bank teams, but it might not be the case at all. The A’s and Rays might be a step ahead of everyone else and saving themselves a lot of money.

This kind of contract will not negatively impact the Yankee’s or Red Sox, but if a team like Atlanta get saddled with a huge contract for decliining production, it can hurt the team for years to come.

The moral of the story is that buyer beware on Tim Lincecum. He is electric, and very may well buck the trend that pitchers of his stature have shown over the years, but that seems unlikely. There are plenty of other pitchers over the years, like Pedro Martinez and Ramon Martinez, that have shown the same career arc.

If I were the Giants, I would even consider moving Lincecum after these next two years in order to get maximum value for him. Just think of the haul that Lincecum could bring in to keep the Giants competitive for years to come. All of that, combined with the massive arbitration that he will command in years 5 and 6, and you have a deal that just makes sense on many baseball levels.

And as a fan, I would recomment seeing Lincecum sooner rather than later, because if you wait too long, you might not be seeing the same pitcher in a few years.

Luckily, the Giants have the ace for the long haul, Matt Cain, to ride into the future.

Just watch this video with little (really normal sized) Tim Kurkijan seated between Mark McGwire and Albert Pujols. It’s hilarious.