West Virginia (+3) vs Duke – A smarter man who made the aforementioned prop bets would consider hedging here and betting Duke.  But if you like action, like I do, you take WVU and hope to get paid big.  Also, I really think WVU is going to win this game.  They are longer and more athletic than Duke and should give them problems.  Duke has been winning by out rebounding their opponents which will be a tall task against WVU’s army of 6-9, long, athletic players.  I think it will be close, by D’sean Butler will be the difference in a WVU win, or at least a cover.

Butler (-1) vs Michigan State – This is kind of the opposite of last year.  MSU played throughout the tourney on a mission to get to the Final Four and play in front of their home crowd.  This year, Butler has done the same.  MSU has had an awesome run this year coming together at the perfect time and Izzo has proven again why he is an elite coach.  However, I just don’t see how they keep winning without their best player.  Butler will not be out coached as they are a very fundamentally sound team.  They play great defense and should not get pushed around.  Plus, this is essentially a home game since their campus is like 10 miles from the arena.  If MSU played at Butler what would the spread be?  I would say at least 3 or 4.  Point being, butler at -1 is a decent value.

Enjoy the Final Four degenerates, and good luck

Lock Tracker (21-15-1)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Oh boy, did that feel good.

I will make no secret of my dislike of the Hoyas.

It has roots in many different places.

First, I feel like the DC sports media has always loved Georgetown more than Maryland, even though the Terrapins are 9 miles outside the city and on the District’s metro service.

There have been many years where the Hoyas were so-so and Maryland was a sweet 16 team, yet we would hear way more about Allen Iverson than Joe Smith.

Second, I strongly dislike the school itself. Georgetown is an elitist school that has no right to be. They like to pretend that they are on-par with the likes of Harvard, Yale and Stanford, yet they aren’t even close.

Check out the national rankings for college’s every year. Georgetown is usually in the 30’s, where the other schools are in the top-15. The feeling of superiority that Georgetown has is perceived. They only ranked about 15 more spots higher than Maryland last year.

John Thompson and Patrick Ewing...one day Ewing would play for the best coach ever, Jeff Van Gundy

Third, Georgetown always seems to steal the elite talent in the area and DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with it. All the while, the University of Maryland rarely gets the talent that Georgetown gets, yet somehow has been a more successful program in the last 15 years.

Lastly, I can’t stand the idol worship of John Thompson. First, he is annoying to listen to on the radio. He doesn’t discuss sports, he just tells you you’re wrong if you don’t agree with him. Also, he fell off in his coaching career greatly at the end of his tenure at Georgetown. During that same time, Gary Williams was coaching his butt-off at Maryland and continues to coach well today.

So, I savor watching Georgetown sulk home after losing to Ohio. This picture sums up the whole game:

Greg "I Dissapear" Monroe and DJ Cooper walk up the court. AP

Georgetown never wins with any of the talent they have in recent history.

Roy Hibbert, Michael Sweetney, Allen Iverson = NOTHING BABY!

And, I hope the trend continues.

AS for the rest of the LEAST, Notre Dame lost to Old Dominion.

I don’t think that was as big a surprise as people thought. ODU came out of a tough battle in the CAA, and were the only team to make the tournament from the conference. They played and executed better than Notre Dame, and showed the continued poor coaching of Mike Brey over the years. This guy always has superior talent, yet never wins with it.

Marquette was surprising, but Washington always seems to play well come tournament time, so maybe it shouldn’t ne so shocking.

And then there is Villanova.

OVERTIME?! ROBERT MORRIS!?

Most people couldn’t even tell you where Robert Morris is (It’s in Pittsburgh).

If they had managed to lose to Robert Morris that would have been so sweet. Not only for the sounds of brackets being ripped up across the nation that would have ensued, but also because it would show that ‘Nova is one of the mentally weak teams in the country.

To swoon at the end of the year, and then let that carry over into the tournament, I think at some point it’s not the coaches fault and the players need to take some responsiblity.

Anyone who has St.Mary;s in the sweet 16 should feel very fortunate.

I think the long shot is coming home.

This one was after a discussion in which Keith Law said he wanted an amateur free agency over a MLB draft:

Joe-NJ

“I would greatly prefer some form of amateur free agency to a slotted draft” Didn’t know you were a Yankees fan
Klaw?
(2:58 PM)

KLAW: Yeah, they’ve really cleaned up in international free agency, signing Chapman, Iglesias, Sano, Ynoa, and now Echevarria … oh, wait, they didn’t sign any of those guys. Please pick up the shattered remains of your point before you exit the chat.

Or this one…

harry (aberdeen)

Do you realize how big a jerk you come off as in these chats? You make it seem like it’s the last thing you want to be doing.There’s a difference between being witty and downright rude.
Klaw
(3:09 PM)

KLAW: I realize that 1-2% of the people reading this chat won’t be smart enough to realize how much of what I write is tongue in cheek. Wait, was that witty, or just downright rude? I won’t tell you which one I was going for.

And this was my favorite:

Scot (TX)

Why do you enjoy making babies cry?
Klaw
(3:16 PM)

KLAW: I use their tears in my sourdough bread starter.

Midwest:

Kansas

Michigan St

Georgetown

Ohio State

I like mostly favorites to make it through here.  I am on record last Jan. saying Kansas will win it all this year, so I won’t waver there.  They have it all.  OSU I am not as bullish on considering they have no depth and played a lot last weekend but I think they still get to the round of 16.  Michigan State is a team I HATE, but I am forced to pick them here pretty much cause of their coach.  I believe tournament coaching is a skill that Izzo has mastered.  Georgetown can play with anyone when they are on, and when we last saw them they were on, so they get the nod.

West

Gonzaga

Butler

Pitt

BYU

This is the side of the bracket that gets a little silly for me.  If the Zags can get by FSU, I think they give SYracuse fits cause of their shooters and word is Onuaku isn’t going to play this weekend.  Butler I just think is a good, tough team that will make it past the first couple games.  BYU has one of the best scorers in the tournament in Fridette so I think they knock off Florida and K State.  Then we have Pitt, and, well, I admit to being a little biased.  But the fact remains they are the only team in the tournament that has beaten 3 top 5 teams so they are certainly capable of making a run.  I am very afraid of a 2nd round game with Xavier but I think they get through.

EAST

Kentucky

Temple

New Mexico

West Virginia

Kentucky is too talented not to make it here, although a 2nd round game vs Texas could be tricky.  Temple could easily lose in round 1 to Cornell, but I think they win a couple games.  New Mexico I am picking sight unseen cause I’ve never actually seen them play but I’ve heard good things.  WVU could be a real threat to win it all.  They are long and athletic so they play tough D and have a bona-fide star in Butler to score when they need it.

South

Louisville

Sienna

Baylor

Nova

A little different here as well.  If Louisville shows up, they can easily beat Duke and Cal and get to the sweet 16.  They are very athletic and when they shoot it well are capable of getting past Duke.  Sienna is a good program and I think can win a couple games.  Baylor I am not a huge fan of but they got a high seed so why not?  Nova has not played well of late but got a gift 2 seed so they should be able to win 2 games.

So there you go, the sweeter 16.  We will have to see who gets more right and think of some kind of prize, I hope its a date with Chuck Dizle’s all time man crush Jeff Van Gundy!

-The Nat’s need to keep Strasburg in the minor’s is here.

-Today’s sports news, including my take on Education Secretary Arne Duncan’s propsed NCAA graduation standard for participation in the NCAA tournament. And a wicked video of a shot to the groin during a basketball game last night is here.

-In case you missed it, the hetero-non sexual- man crush of the week is here.

ALLEZ BRACKETS!

Chairman Kaga from Iron Chef Original

D-Dollas Sweet 16 Picks

MIDWEST:

In the Midwest, I am taking all the top 4 seeds.  So, that means I have:

1) Kansas;

2) Ohio State;

3) Georgetown; and

4) Maryland

This has been widely considered the most difficult bracket and I think it also has the best overall collection of top 4 seeded teams.  I am not saying that an upset is not possible, but I just don’t see it.  Kansas is legit with many NBA players.  Ohio State has the best individual talent in the tournament, Evan Turner.  Georgetown, when on, is one of the best in the country.  Maryland is underrated as a 4 seed because they did finish with an identical ACC record as Duke, yet Duke is a 1 and Maryland is a 4? That disparity is too great.

EAST:

I have a  little mix-up at the top

1) Kentucky;

2) Temple;

3) Marquette; and

4) West Virginia

Picking Kentucky, I just made the obvious choice.  Temple is led by Fran Dunphy who has won in the tournament with Ivy League talent, now he will get a chance to play with a bigger deck.  Marquette was one of the best teams late and got lost in the Big East Shuffle.  I like West Virginia because of Bob Huggins and their athleticism.

WEST:

1) Syracuse;

2) UTEP;

3) Pittsburgh; and

4) Kansas State

Here I have a major upset with UTEP, a 12 seed, making the Sweet 16.  They come out of a weak bracket and have two very good big men in Arnett Moultrie and Derrick Caracter, of whom, I think you will be hearing his name quite a bit in this tournament.  Syracuse was a tough pick because Jim Boeheim has a history of losing in the NCAA’s as a one seed, but I think they will make it this far.  Pitt is tough and well-coached.  Kansas State is a team I don’t particularly care for, and I don’t think they have a great coach, but they are big and athletic and that can carry you in the tournament.

SOUTH:

1) Duke;

2) Utah State;

3) Baylor; and

4) Richmond

Here is my upset special supreme: Utah State.

Hear me out.

They have a star in the Wally Sczerbiak-mold, Taj Wesley.  He is 6′ 7″ and knows how to score.  He isn’t a three point shooter, but he shot 57% from the field for the season, and has an absurd true shooting percentage of 63.6.  He is the kind of guy who could carry a team, couple that with 4 players with over 100 3pt attempts, of which, three of them shot over 42% from beyond the arc, and we have a team that can score in the tournament.

As for the rest, Duke is an obvious choice, and people picking them for an early exit are being redick-ulous.  Baylor is big, strong, defensive and have a good coach in Scott Drew.  Lastly, I think Richmond is the team that is undervalued at its seed, due to lack of respect for the A-10.

Pete’s Picks are coming…soon

]]> http://lostintheboxes.com/?feed=rss2&p=789 1 http://lostintheboxes.com/?p=791 http://lostintheboxes.com/?p=791#comments Thu, 18 Mar 2010 13:42:48 +0000 D-Dolla http://lostintheboxes.com/?p=791 Five innings into his professional career, the war drum is banging for Stephen Strasburg to be on the opening day big league roster for the Washington Nationals.

That would be a terrible mistake on many levels.

First, the Washington Nationals are going to STINK this year.  I am a Nats fan, but I am realistic.  Even if we improve by 10 wins, we are still in the 90 loss territory.

The Washington Nationals will not magically be catapulted into playoff contention if they manage to put Strasburg in the rotation starting in April.  At best, Strasburg might be able to help them cut the amount of losses to 90 if he were in the opening day rotation.

The Building Blocks...like a name for a bad 80's pop band

Second, by calling up Strasburg now, you are going to put an unreasonable amount of expectation and hype on the player starting opening day.  The hype isn’t going to dissapear if you send him to the minors, but at least down there he doesn’t come out of the season’s gates with the ’savior’ label on his back.

Letting him get some professional batters under his belt in the minors will help Strasburg acclamate himself better to the big leagues.  Minor league hitters at double A and beyond are going to be better and more difficult competition on a consistent basis than anything that Strasburg has seen yet, and he needs that.

Third, leaving him in the minor’s is going to delay his ability to file for arbitration.  The clock on his service time will begin ticking the second he is in the major leagues.

Although Strasburg is on the 40-man roster already, that only affects the amount of options that the player has over the course of his first contract.  Essentially, it forces the major league team to get the players in the big leagues quicker.  What it does not do is affect arbitration eligible status.

By waiting until mid-June, the Nationals can ensure that Strasburg will not get super two status, and will not be able to file arbitration until after his 4th year, instead of his third.

Remember this Dynamic Duo--arm injuries derailed them both

Lastly, Jim Riggleman has had a young pitching phenom before in Kerry Wood.  He had Kerry Wood up early in the season and rode him into the ground by pitching him 166.2 innings.  The major work load led to arm surgery for Wood, which he never quite returned to his previous form.

Striking out major league hitters is a LOT of work.  Not all innings are made the same, so it isn’t a fair barometer to just say he pitched 150 innings, because if one pitcher is throwing 25 pitches an inning and  another is throwing 14, the 14 pitches per inning pitcher is throwing less.

My point is that Strasburg should be monitored closely, and hopefully will only throw about 125 big league innings this year, in preparation to anchor next year’s staff with John Lannan.

The Nats have already felt the effects of an arm injury to a prized prospect, Jordan Zimmermann.  Every effort has to be made to prevent that from happening again.

Next years opening day roatation could be:

1) John Lannan

2) Stephen Strasburg

3) Jason Marquis

4) Jordan Zimmermann

5) Chien Ming Wang–if he returns to form…if not, Ross Detweiler/Garrett Mock/Free Agent

The future is hopeful.  Hopefully, the Nats don’t mess it up.

Any Big East team to win the tournament (+280) – So basically if any of the 8 Big East teams win the title it pays almost 3 to 1.  This is a simple numbers game.  The Big East has the most teams in the field so already there is an advantage.  Not only that they have some very high seeds with a #1, 2 #2’s and 2 #3’s.  Syracuse and WVU are popular picks to win it all and it would not be unheard of if Nova broke through either.  Georgetown and Pitt have proven they can beat anyone so there seems to be some real value in this bet.  Of course, the 2 best teams are Kansas and Kentucky.  Also Duke seems to have an easy road so it is kind of a stretch, but seeing as how it pays almost 3-1, it is a good bet to take a chance on.

Total Wins for teams from the ACC under 7.5 (-105) - This is saying teams from the ACC will not win more than 7 games combined.  In my bracket I only have 3, which is probably low.  But where are they going to come from?  If you like Duke to make it out of their region, you might want to go the other way, but I see trouble for them as early as round 2 against Louisville.  The rest of the teams don’t impress me much.  MD might win 2 games, but I doubt it.  FSU might beat Gonzaga but probably won’t beat Syracuse.  I have no confidence in Wake, and am not all that impressed with Clemson.  Especially since Clemson will be playing their mirror image in Missouri in the 1st round.  Who knows what to expect from Georgia Tech.  I honestly doubt they get to 6 wins, let alone 7 or 8.

More total wins in the tournament Ohio State (+150) over Syracuse - Syracuse has not played great at the end of the year and I sort of get the feeling they peaked too early.  OSU is the opposite.  They have played great lately and have the best player in the tournament in Evan Turner.  I really don’t like the 2nd round match up for the Cuse against Gonzaga.  If the Zags can beat FSU they have a great chance to beat the Cuse because they have shooters to beat their zone.  OSU on the other hand seems to have an easy road to at least the sweet 16.  Throw in the (+150) line and it makes sense.  And if the Cuse gets hot and wins it all you are covered by your Big East bet.

Enjoy the Tournament and look for some game locks today or tomorrow.

For years now, Mets fans have been tortured.  They play in the biggest media market in the US (if not world) and are always the younger brother of the mighty Yankees.  The constant insecurity of ownership has led GM’s of the past to make panic trades that have crippled the farm system.  They’ve always spent a ton on 30 something free agents and often had no depth when someone gets hurt.  After last year, the sentiment was the same.  The Mets have no depth and no plan and any sort of injury causes a 100 loss season…FIYA MINAYA.  The truth however is that the injuries the Mets had last year would not have been overcome by any team.  Losing Beltran, Reyes, Santana, Wright (for a couple weeks), Perez, Maine, and Delgado is too much for any team.  But the silver lining is a lot of young players played last year and they might have more depth than before.  Furthermore, the vast majority of the team is now under 30 and  some legitimate stars are developing in the lower ranks.  For the 1st time in a couple years the Mets appear to have a plan for more than this year and actually have a chance at sustained success.  let’s take a look.

Pitching Staff:

The staff led by Johan Santana COULD be very good.  After Santana you have Oliver Perez (28), John Maine (28), Mike Pelfrey (26) and whoever wins the 5th spot.  The early favorite appears to be 27 year old Fernando Nieve, or 23 year old Jonathon Niese.  Obviously there are a lot of question marks but Maine and Perez have talent and have won 15 games in a major league season.  Pelfrey continues to improve and routinely touches the mid 90’s with a tough sinker.  That top 4 COULD be very good and be that way for a while.  Santana is 32 but he is in awesome shape and is one of the hardest workers in the game so he should be good for a few more years.  The other guys are all under 30 and would seem to be entering their prime.  All of those guys were acquired by Minaya without giving up all that much.  Sure they could’ve used some of the prospects in the Santana trade last year but they kept Niese who has looked great in the spring and played well in the majors as well.  Also, none of them have exactly torn it up for the twins yet.  The wild card of the staff is Jenry Meijia.  The 20 year old with unreal stuff who has impressed everyone in camp.  There seems to be no chance he makes the rotation this year, but he at least has ace potential and in a year or 2 could be a major factor.  As a result, they have a young staff that has the potential to be very good.

Outfield

Obviously, Jason Bay is over 30 so he doesn’t exactly fit the mold, but he is only 31 and signed for 4 years.  So left field SHOULD be occupied by a productive player for the next few years.  In left I think Omar made a very underrated move this past summer when he acquired Jeff Francuer.  He’s 26 and has a lot of talent.  He is certainly flawed but in a line up with Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Bay, a low OBP power bat can still be an asset.  He also plays great defense.  In center they have an aging Beltran.  He got off to a good start last year before getting injured and he is of course injured again to start this year.  He is 32 so this is the time when he might start to decline severely.  If healthy, he is the best center fielder in the league but he should not be considered a major part of the Mets’ future.  If they can get 2 more decent years out of him, they will be set cause on the horizon, Omar still has Fernado Martinez up his sleeve.  The poster child for over-hyped Mets prospect is still around in the Mets’ system.  What makes him different is he is only 21 and when healthy he has killed the ball.  He is tearing it up in spring training and is the heir apparent to Beltran.  NO ONE disputes F-Mart’s talent level, but he can’t seem to stay healthy.  It reminds me of Jose Reyes.  He was hurt a lot early and finally was able as he got older to take better care of him self and stay healthy.  I predict the same for Martinez.  There are already reports that he is in better shape and starting to figure out that he needs to do to stay healthy and in shape.  If Beltran can have a couple of decent years, martinez could take over and the team would be fine.  So in short, The outfield appears to be good defensively and offensively for the next couple of years with young, productive players.

are dark skies forming over Citi field? Maybe not

Infield

Wright and Reyes are 26 and 27 respectively, so they aren’t going anywhere.  Obviuosly Reyes needs to be healthy (noticing a theme here) but just about any team in the league would love to have those 2 on the left side of their infield.  It gets tricky on the right side though.  Luis Castillo is by all accounts a bad signing for the Mets.  He is not a good defender and just an average offensive player.  Also first base is a bit of a question mark.  Currently, Daniel Murphy is manning that post and most are lukewarm on him.  He has proven he can hit, but not with the power you want for a first baseman.  It’s interesting cause he has proven he cannot play the outfield and does not appear to be an ideal fit at first.  In the minors, he played third which is not possible for the Mets so he seems to be a man without a position on this team…unless he can play second.  He has tried in the offseason with mixed results but he has good hands in the field and is a very hard worker so it could work.  He might have to cause coming up behind him fast is big Ike Davis, the 22 year old first baseman who is killing the ball in spring training.  He will most likely be in the majors for a little this year and to stay next year.  So, if Murphy can learn second, they could have a really good, young infield for a long time.  The biggest hole is catcher.  Omar seems to have no clue about how to develop a catcher and I am unable to defend any moves he’s made at that position.  There is Josh Thole in AAA who can hit for average and takes walks, but he couldn’t hit it out of a little league park.  A lot depends on how second base sorts it self out and the a trade of Murphy is possible (murphy, meijia, f-mart and meijia for Mauer? I hope not) with Reese Havens coming up through the system as well. 

Wrap Up

So if you look at it, if things go right, the Mets might be built for a big run the next couple of years.  They will have a starting staff with a bonafide ace and 4 other young, promising players behind him.  An outfield with really good offensive and defensive players (except Bay), and the potential for a young and very productive infield with lots of homegrown talent.  Of course, a lot of things have to go right for a pennant to come to Queens, but if you step back and take a look, you can see the plan that Omar Minaya has and can’t deny that there is at least a chance that it works out.

-First, not our story, but Tiger is coming back at the Masters. Why it’s a mistake here .

-Check out the World Cup fever here.

-Who’s the non-sexual man crush of the day? It’s Ryan Miller.

-Tourney expansion talk? Best thing ever…read here.

-Kobe vs. MJ…find out who wins here

-And, this is too good to not post, but former NBA player Winston Bennett slept with 90 women a MONTH! Read the story here.

Even at that clip he still wouldn’t catch Wilt.

-Young Stud Fantasy Baseball Preview here.

- A Met’s fans feelings on Omar Minaya here.